Prediction Run 5K 3/11/14

Spring break!  I get to do things that I don't have time for during the school week.  So that is when I cram my threshold testing at the gym and other fun things.  Prediction Run with Plano Pacers is held monthly Tuesday at 7pm.  Normally that is too close to my bedtime, but I figured I will give it a try.  The whole course is no watch allowed.  This will take out my dependency to watching heart rate and also the distance as well.  You tell how fast you are going to run and whoever comes closest to the prediction is a winner!  What a fun concept!

I have had high hopes...  doing the best time calculation from recent races and posted to Spinervals friends if I should say 31 minutes flat, 31:30 or maybe in between 31:15.  The catch was that I had run test the same morning and Coach Todd thought I would be tired from it.  I did take a short nap and spent all day getting ready and feeling nervous about it, not being too productive about anything. When I posted that to Spinervals Team, Cara immediately guessed time, followed by my Buddy Pete, so I decided to open a contest officially.

I checked out the start location.  It starts at a city library very close to home.  In fact, I knew it would be on the trail that I like to ride and have used it for training ride a lot.  I thought I didn't know the course, but after hearing basic instructions, I realized I know one side of the river very well.  But on the bike.  Never ran and never minded distance and what is where.  The temperature was usual crazy Texas weather.  It was going up close to 80 degrees that afternoon and the cold front is coming the following couple of days.  Walking around in long-sleeve T-shirt, it felt very hot.  I remembered Coach Todd said about hydrating well before races, so I started to drink well that afternoon.  At this point, I still assumed that there will be water station in halfway point, but I packed a couple of clean bottles, one with water with ice and the other with Accelearde with ice for recovery drink.  

I got to the library parking lot and there are already people sitting around in a small table setup.  I realized that is the event and got myself #3 and used the bathroom in the library.  I tried to peek at the paperwork who is saying what time and thought about cheating pinpointing somebody who claimed to be the same time I said, but at this point people were claiming way too fast for my time.  Then soon a van full of family was unloaded and people started to make a long line to sign up.  After all, the temperature cooled a little bit and the breeze was feeling pretty nice.  And there were a lot of people on the trail.  I saw a lot of people on various types of bike, walkers, runners and family just enjoying being outside.  When I told Tony that the race is starting over PM, I saw people picking up number 80 and bigger.  I observed people around me and they were carrying water bottles.  So I went back to the car and grabbed a water bottle and decided to copy Alan the Chief.  Then the organizers started to speak and said this has been the biggest turnout ever.  After all, the event is free for everybody even non-members of Plano Pacers.  Then it was time for us to move up to the start line.  

The start line was a little walk down the trail under the tunnel and over the bridge.  This is the side I never rode.  I thought I was running in a good pace, because I needed to take care of the breathing and running cadence coordinated.  Because I was editing my video with Pointers Sisters, "I am so excited", 180 cadence was ingrained in my brain.  I decided I am doing a good pace.  Soon I recognized the dog park and realized that is the left turn off the bridge we  never have made.  We cross the bridge, passed through the dog park and went the side of the river we always go south for coffee ride.  When I saw the library on the other side of the river, I estimated that is about 1/3 of the way and took a sip of water and walked for a while.  I started to wonder which bridge we are going to cross.  There are a couple of places that cars could come, although usually light traffic and came to my favorite part of the trail: the river is wider and the water birds are around.  I expected to see very fast people on the other side of the river, but didn't start seeing for a long while.  I took that as I still have a long way to the turn rather than I was doing a good time!  We took the brown bridge where the river starts to narrow.  I figured this is probably the second mile, so finished up the bottle and walked for a while.  About this time, I noticed this couple, who walk and I pass, then they surge for a while, pass me and then start walking.  We went back and forth probably half a dozen time.  They looked younger and fit, but I was thinking, I am running and doing my race!  It didn't feel necessarily long, but I kept my expectations in check that the finish line doesn't come very quickly.  Then the lady of the couple mentioned, maybe five more minutes.  But I still was not sure if I should believe her.  I finally spotted a large space with lots of cars with a couple of flags.  That HAS TO be the library we started!  The couple was now both behind me and I saw an older gentleman in yellow shirt.  Since I claim finishing strong is my thing as an endurance gal, I pushed once I saw finish line, one last time.  I thought I heard the number 33.  Once I finished I tried to take a peek on the paperwork that a lady was keeping everybody's time and bib number.  

Now to the prediction contest: Cara Smith jumped in first saying I was tired after the test, 31:47.  Then Buddy Pete followed with HUGE confidence with 30:54.  Followed by Ginny: 31:13, Judy: 31:05, Kristi: 30:58 and Shaun: 31:21.  You, friends are all kind.  You gave me very good time.  However, the truth is I was nowhere near making my personal best!  GRRR.  33:25 predicted 115 seconds difference from predicted 31:30, making me prediction rank of 54th out of 76.  If this were actual race, my finish order was 47^th out of 76.  If you see the official result, you can see the best predictions are in fact, single digit, but how people miss prediction is funny.  Fast people predict too slow and slow people predict too fast and all mixes.  Sorry to disappoint the team this time, but I expect to be able to run this race again in May.  Will you all guess my time for fun again?